By Amos Aar
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidy in May 2023, Nigerians were told the painful decision would ultimately lead to a more efficient petroleum sector, lower waste, and improved economic management.
Among the key assurances given by government officials and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) was that the country’s state-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna would be rehabilitated and returned to operation within specific timelines.
The Port Harcourt refinery was expected to resume operations by the end of 2023. The Warri refinery was projected to come on stream in early 2024, while the Kaduna refinery was scheduled for rehabilitation later in the same year.
Nearly three years after those promises were made, the situation confronting Nigerians tells a different story.
Petrol prices have continued to climb, with a litre now selling for between N1,360 and N1,370 in many filling stations, while black-market prices range from N1,600 to N1,800 depending on location.
The recent conflict involving Iran and Israel has further exposed Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil market disruptions, prompting federal authorities to attribute fresh price increases to developments in the Middle East.
Some Nigerians opine that the crisis raises a fundamental question: Why should a major crude oil-producing nation still be so heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products?
That question has become even louder as the country gradually moves toward another election cycle, with the administration seeking renewed public confidence despite the lingering refinery challenge.
Among those expressing concern is Port Harcourt-based journalist, Emmanuel Obe, who believes the debate should focus less on campaign rhetoric and more on accountability.
Speaking in a telephone interview, Obe told The Newspad that the approach to governance since 2023 has been overshadowed by politics, while many of the expectations created by subsidy removal remain unfulfilled.
According to him, Nigerians were persuaded to accept the hardship associated with subsidy removal because they were told the savings would be redirected toward infrastructure, social services, security, healthcare, education and economic development.
He argued that while some progress has been recorded in road construction and rehabilitation, the broader welfare gains expected from the policy have not significantly reached ordinary citizens.
“The duty of government is the welfare and security of the people. Every other thing government does should ultimately improve the well-being of citizens.
“Three years later, many Nigerians are still struggling with rising living costs, insecurity, unemployment and declining purchasing power,” he said.
For Obe, the continued failure of the country’s refineries remains one of the clearest examples of promises that have not translated into tangible benefits.
He noted that Nigeria, as a major oil producer, should not be exposed to the uncertainties of international fuel markets in the manner it currently is.
“If our refineries were functioning and our distribution system was working efficiently, events occurring thousands of miles away would not have such a direct impact on our daily lives,” he argued.
The journalist pointed to the irony of a country blessed with abundant crude oil reserves continuing to import refined petroleum products while citizens bear the burden of international pricing fluctuations.
He explained that fuel remains an essential commodity whose demand cannot easily decline, regardless of price increases.
According to him, the challenge is compounded by Nigeria’s unreliable electricity supply, which forces millions of households and businesses to depend on petrol-powered generators for basic activities.
“In many places, people cannot even charge their phones without fuel. So when fuel prices rise, every aspect of life becomes more expensive,” he said.
Obe recalled that the previous administration approved about $1.5 billion for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery, a figure that would translate into trillions of naira at current exchange rates.
However, he questioned whether pouring such enormous resources into aging facilities represented the best use of public funds.
Rather than continuously rehabilitating decades-old refineries built under outdated technological conditions, he argued that Nigeria should consider constructing entirely new refineries equipped with modern systems capable of delivering greater efficiency, lower operating costs and higher output.
“Technology has advanced significantly since those refineries were built. New refineries would be more efficient, cheaper to operate and better positioned to meet today’s demands. One has to ask whether spending huge amounts on old facilities is really the best option,” he said.
The argument is gaining traction among energy analysts who believe the country’s refinery rehabilitation programmes have consumed substantial public resources over several decades with limited results to show.
He contended that repeated turnaround maintenance projects have failed to produce sustainable outcomes, leaving the nation trapped in a cycle of dependence on imported fuel.
Beyond the refineries themselves, Obe pointed to years of pipeline vandalism, deteriorating transport infrastructure, operational inefficiencies and alleged corruption within the petroleum sector as factors that have contributed to the industry’s decline.
He maintained that subsidy removal without functioning local refining capacity effectively exposed Nigerians to the full volatility of international oil prices without any meaningful protection.
While government officials have periodically announced plans involving foreign partners and investors to revive the refineries, Mr John Adzer, a former staff of NNPC depot, Apir, Benue State remains uncertain about when concrete results will emerge.
Recent reports of potential agreements with Chinese firms have generated interest, but Obe cautioned that little is publicly known about the terms of such arrangements.
“People do not yet know the details of those discussions. We do not know what has been agreed, how it will work or what benefits Nigerians should expect,” he said.
According to him, the administration has not delivered on its promise to make petroleum products more accessible and affordable through refinery revival and sector reforms.
He argued that the economic burden on ordinary Nigerians has intensified since 2023, with inflation, currency depreciation and rising transportation costs combining to erode household incomes.
“The refineries that were not working when this administration came into office are still not working. There is no clear timeline for when they will fully return to operation, while the effects of subsidy removal continue to hit Nigerians very hard,” he said.
Interestingly, similar concerns are being expressed far from the oil-producing communities of the Niger Delta.
A teacher in Kakuri, Kaduna State, who requested anonymity, told this reporter that visible rehabilitation activities are also not taking place at the Kaduna refinery, reinforcing public doubts about the government’s refinery revival commitments.
As Nigerians assess nearly three years of post-subsidy reality, the refinery question continues to linger.
The issue is no longer merely about fuel prices. It is about whether the sacrifices demanded of citizens have produced the structural reforms that were promised.
With another election approaching, many voters may ultimately judge the government not by announcements, projections or negotiations, but by a simple measure: whether the refineries that were repeatedly promised are finally working, and whether Nigerians are genuinely better off because of it.
Nicely said