By Olajide Omojolomoju
A new coalition against the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 has continued to gather momentum.
Initially known as the Nigerian National Coalition Group, NNCG, the coalition transcend various opposition political parties with the arrowheads including the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the 2023 general election, Alhaja Atiku Abubakar, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party, LP, in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi, former governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, and former governor of Rivers State and immediate past Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi.
Other prominent members of the NNCG are former President of the Senate, David Mark, Umar Ardo, and former governor of Osun State and immediate past Minister of the Interior, Rauf Aregbesola.
Okay last week, the NNCG submitted na application seeking to register a political party, All Democratic Alliance, ADA to the national electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, the organ constitutionally saddled with the responsibility of birthing political parties in the country.
But by all indication, from the name to the design, the ADA already reads like a cautionary tale in political miscalculation.
What had been presented to the Nigerian masses as a unifying front instead projects confusion, and contradiction, and everything but credibility. Before the cast of a single, the cracks in ADA are already too visible for all to see.
Considering the fact that Nigeria is a nation reeling from the effects and consequences of broken promises and recycled power blocs, ADA is presenting a from that looks less like a fresh start and is showing it’s hand more like a desperate merger of political leftovers, a coalition of individuals who are used to the perks and allure of public office but are now sidelined in the scheme of things.
ADA, rather than a coalition of hope in the seeming hopelessness that engulfed the country, looks more like a coalition of convenience.
Everything seems to be wrong from inception – structure, foundation – which are not only flimsy but hollow.
The name itself, ‘All Democratic Alliance’ seems like an overreach masking the underwhelming vision. It looks more like a patchwork of individual ambitions glued together, not by strategy or national interest, but by survival instinct.
The proposed party is yet to present a core ideology, and is yet to present any new thinking, and magnetic leadership.
It looks more like just another noisy alliance that is hoping and expecting that the electorate will forget the past they represent.
Ordinarily coalitions are supposed to inspire but unfortunately, from the look of things, ADA is simply just a reminder that unity without purpose is chaos in costume.
The million dollar question on every lips as at now is: Is ADA a Coalition of aggrieved politicians or serious contenders for 2027?
On the surface, ADA looks like a conglomerate of experienced politicians, but in reality, when one looks at it holistically, what is seen is just a group of aggrieved politicians, who are yet to come to terms with their loss in 2023 and most of who had lost their grip at home l, but now trying to find relevance again.
•Atiku Abubakar, Adamawa State
Atiku has run for the President more times than anyone else, living or dead in the history of Nigeria.
After losing again in 2023as he had done since 2007, when he began his quest to rule Nigeria, his influence in the PDP, where he contested in 2023 has dipped.
It is of a fact that many of his loyalists have drifted off to seek greener pastures in other parties and those remaining no longer see him or treat him like the party’s natural leader.
Even tgd governor of his Adamawa home state, Ahmadu Fintiri is now closer to his political rival, former governor of Riders State and Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Wike Atiku’s political rival.
Atiku probably is jumping ship from the PDP to join the coalition to stop Tinubu in 2027 because he believed that he had given everything to the PDP and expected 100 per cent backing in his quest for the Presidency in 2023. However, he saw the party torn apart, with Wike spearheading the G5 and openly campaigned for Tinubu, thereby undermining him.
Atiku’s strength at home is also waning, especially with the stripping of his chieftaincy title of Wazirin Adamawa by the state government, which states that nobody who is a non-indigene of any of the emirates in the state can hold any chieftaincy title.
Although his name still carry some clout, but the fact remains that his base is cracking.
The alliance between Wike and Fintiri has dealt a big blow to Atiku’s home structure and younger voters are not aligning with him either. alliance with Wike hurts Atiku’s structure badly.
His belief that he should fly the banner of the yet to be registered ADA is also another problem that would stir crisis and tension in ADA.
Rotimi Amaechi, Rivers State
Once upon a time, Amaechi was a political force in Rivers State, but since his failed attempt to fly the banner of the All Progressives Congress, APC, ahead of the 2023 election and his backing the wrong horse during the election have turned him to a pariah of sort.
From all indication, Amaechi is now sidelined and is out of favour.
Amaechi’s anger probably stemmed from his role in helping the APC won the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections but which were never recognized.
He also does not have any voice or reward in the Tinubu administration. And despite helping the APC to win big in 2015, his strength at home is near zero, as his old structure in his Rivers home state had either gone into oblivion or silenced.
His major problem in the upcoming ADA would arise from his not known to play second fiddle to anyone – if he is not in charge, friction and crisis would erupt.
Nasir El Rufai, Kaduna State
The former governor of Kaduna State, once known as one of the sharp minds in the APC is probably aggrieved because of his botched ministerial nomination, which was reported said to have been block by the man who nominated him – President Tinubu.
He seems upset because he felt
embarrassed and politically ambushed. His non-confirmation as minister stung and hurt deeply, hence his aligning with opposition elements, building opposition to Tinubu’s re-election.
Does he still pull his weight in his home state like when he was governor and in the APC? The answer is neither here nor there.
He is still known to has some followership among some elites, but the truth is that he has lost support in Southern Kaduna and among Christians in the state. He is no longer the unifying figure he once was.
El Rufai is stubborn and strategic and the moment ADA fails to serve his goals, he may either pull out or sabotage from within.
David Mark, Benue State
The former Senate President looks more like a national statesman than being a partisan politician today. He is less active in day-to-day politics, but he still commands regard across party lines.
It doesn’t seem Mark is looking for nay elective position, but he may be hoping to offer guidance to a new political formation. As the PDP leans towards younger power blocs, ADA offers him a platform to influence direction and offer stability.
His Political influence at home is modest, as an Idoma leader, he is confronted with demographic limitations in the Tiv-dominated Benue politics, but his national stature remains valuable.
He may not contest for power in ADA, but he may remain a stabilizing force in a coalition that is yet to find its bearing.
Rauf Aregbesola, Osun State
The once-upon-a-time Tinubu ally is now estranged from the man who brought him into prominence and ensured he governed Osun State for eight straight years.
He fell out with APC’s leadership and lost grip on Osun politics.
Aregbesola felt betrayed and shut out by the very structure he helped build. His rift with his Chief of Staff and successor, Gboyega Oyetola and estrange from Tinubu have left him in politically isolation.
In his Osun State home base, he wields little or no influence as the governor of Osun State, Adeola Adeleke and the PDP are in firm control of the state’s Political structure.
Similarly, his political structure in the largest local government in Nigeria – Alimoso Local Government Area – has been taken over by another after his departure from the APC.
Aregbesola may be nagging to be ADA’s eyes and voice in the South-West geopolitical zone, but he would have to contend with others from the zone for this.
Another big problems ADA may face is what will these politicians tell Nigerians?
What exactly will Amaechi, El Rufai, Aregbesola and the other major players in the Muhammadu Buhari government, who are now converged in ADA say differently this time around? These men are not just members of the APC, they were central figures in the same administration many Nigerians believe planted the seeds of today’s economic hardship.
Amaechi superintended over the Ministry of Transportation for eight years. Rail and road projects headed during his tenure still leave many wondering why costs were high and impact low. El Rufai shaped Northern politics with strong arm tactics that polarized communities and raised questions about human rights. Aregbesola led the Ministry of Interior at a time mass jail breaks were the order of the day, with rising insecurity. He also influenced policies on internal affairs that were controversial.
Nigerians are waiting for what they have to say in explanation for their roles and if they cannot explain what went wrong and what they intend to do differently and why Nigerians should trust them again, then ADA be seen as a rebranded version of the very same problems Nigerians are desperate to move beyond.
From the look of things, this coalition is not a coalition of ideas, but a coalition of grievances by aggrieved politicians who felt shut out of the corridor of power. Everyone in thf coalition felt wronged and shortchanged one way or the other and everyone of them really wants to lead.
This individualist tendencies is surely not a recipe for unity or direction.
Again, many of the arrowheads have lost their controls in their home states and some cannot even win their units or wards.
ADA is yet to boast of any state governor in its fold or even a national structure, and this indicated that ADA is starting from the scratch.
Another major crisis that may rear its head is picking who will fly the Party’s banner as presidential candidate in 2027.
As at now, there is no agreement in sight. All we have is just ambition every nook and cranny of the coalition.
Unless there is significant shift in ADA in all ramifications, Nigerians see it as a gathering of aggrieved and sidelined politicians trying to reinvent themselves.
And without fresh faces, clear answers to nagging questions and genuine accountability, ADA may be seen by many as the skae old problem in a new name and dress.
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