By Amos Aar
Fresh discourse has erupted across Nigeria’s political and media spaces following recent remarks by First Lady Oluremi Tinubu suggesting that Muslims may have outnumbered Christians in the Country and linking that perception to the success of the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket of her husband, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, in the 2023 elections.
While the Presidency has not issued a formal clarification on the specific comments, the First Lady’s position has triggered mixed reactions among journalists, commentators and religious stakeholders, reopening long-standing sensitivities about the role of faith in Nigeria’s politics.
In an interview with The Newspad, a Port Harcourt–based veteran journalist, Mr. Emmanuel Obe, described the issue as “extremely sensitive,” cautioning that public officials must tread carefully when discussing religious demographics.
“Religion has always been a delicate issue because the ruling class sometimes uses it to mobilise support and influence the populace,” Emmanuel said, arguing that faith in Nigeria traditionally operates as a personal matter rather than a political metric.
He noted that ordinary Nigerians often relate across religious lines without friction.
According to him, traders and farmers typically prioritise commerce over creed, a reality he believes political actors sometimes ignore.
“Ordinarily, religion is something very personal. It is not something that should be openly debated in a way that creates division,” he stated.
Beyond the substance of the remarks, Emmanuel questioned the propriety of the First Lady speaking on such politically sensitive matters outside the country.
“In what capacity is she speaking? Ambassador, minister or what?” he asked, stressing that foreign engagements on delicate national issues are usually handled through formal diplomatic channels.
He warned that any misstep in such international commentary could easily be interpreted globally as Nigeria’s official position.
“Unless she was formally authorised in an official capacity, which I am not aware of, her intervention on this matter was, in my opinion, inappropriate,” he added.
Emmanuel further cautioned against the “politicisation of religion in Nigeria”, saying the trend risks deepening fault lines in an already fragile polity.
“If someone says there are more Muslims than Christians, what is the implication? Does it mean one group should be favoured over the other? That would contradict the constitutional principle of neutrality,” he argued.
On the 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket, Emmanuel maintained that religion alone did not determine the electoral outcome, though he acknowledged that political actors remain sensitive to religious balancing because of Nigeria’s diversity.
Looking ahead to 2027, he predicted that parties may still consider religious balance “to avoid avoidable distractions,” even while insisting that competence should remain the primary criterion for leadership selection.
“Ultimately, elections should be based on competence and capacity to deliver, not religious identity,” he said, while also urging government to ensure minorities do not feel excluded.
A similar view came from Benin-based journalist cum Academic, Tony Abolo, who told The Newspad in a separate interview that elevating religion above merit is counterproductive to national cohesion.
According to him, leadership evaluation should focus squarely on performance capacity rather than identity markers.
“An individual’s capacity to deliver on his mandate should be considered above his religion, ethnicity and culture,” Tony said, warning that identity politics only ignites division.
He also rejected rotational power arguments framed strictly along North-South lines, describing the fixation as outdated.
“It is nonsensical to be going four years or eight years in the South, eight years or four years in the North. Our going back and forth is not going to help our country,” he said.
Tony specifically faulted the statistical basis of the First Lady’s claim about religious numbers. He queried which yardstick was used to measure and determine the number of Muslims and Christians in Nigeria?
On the First Lady’s reported dismissal of claims of Christian persecution as propaganda, Abolo, disagreed strongly, pointing to persistent public complaints by Clerics and faith leaders.
“There are public outcries including by bishops and pastors everywhere in Nigeria and the evidence of the killings abound,” he maintained.
The controversy comes against the backdrop of a long-running national argument over whether religion significantly shapes Nigeria’s electoral behaviour.
Supporters of the Muslim-Muslim ticket have historically argued that competence and political arithmetic matter more than faith, while critics warn that same-faith tickets risk alienating minorities and inflaming suspicion.
Indeed, the debate has persisted at the highest levels. President Tinubu himself has previously insisted that Nigeria does not suffer religious persecution, saying claims of such were false and that Christians and Muslims are “united.”
However, international voices have sometimes pushed back. A United States Congressman recently criticised Nigerian authorities for allegedly not doing enough to curb attacks affecting both Christians and moderate Muslims, highlighting the complexity of the security narrative
Across Nigerian media and online platforms, reactions remain divided. Some commentators argue that the focus on religious headcounts distracts from governance challenges such as insecurity and economic hardship. Others insist that perceptions of marginalisation, whether accurate or exaggerated, cannot simply be waved aside.
What appears clear from the emerging discourse is that religion continues to exert emotional and political weight far beyond private worship.
For Emmanuel, the path forward is restraint and institutional discipline.
“Public officers should be careful not to inflame religious sensitivities,” he warned, adding that anyone seen promoting division through official conduct should be cautioned in line with the law.
Tony, on his part, urged a broader national rethink.
“What we need to build are competent, patriotic leaders. Once merit leads and minorities are protected, the country will be better for it,” he said.
As Nigeria gradually inches toward another election cycle, the latest controversy is a reminder that the intersection of faith and politics remains one of the country’s most combustible fault lines, and one that political actors ignore at their peril.
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