[ANALYSIS]
Bagudu Mohammed
Recent bye-elections swept decisively by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) across Gombe, Kano, Bauchi, and Delta states have reignited a familiar political debate: how does a party maintain electoral dominance in the face of grinding public discontent?
The Puzzle of Discontent and Dominance
This paradox was recently captured with brutal honesty by elder statesman Ahmad Sharu.
Highlighting the contrast with the past, Sharu remarked, “They tell you that they no longer want the head, yet his party’s candidates continue to win the bye-elections.
It seems the new opposition alliance is not as effective as what we had in 2014 leading to 2015.”
He recalled how a united opposition in 2014 easily defeated the ruling party’s candidate in Niger State, prompting a lingering national question: is today’s opposition simply weak, or is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu a fundamentally different political actor compared to past leaders like Goodluck Jonathan?
Weighing in on the comparison, political commentator Abdulkadir Sheikh argued that drawing parallels between 2014 and today is a false equivalence.
The current political landscape, Sheikh noted, is deeply fractured by competing regional suspicions and fragmented interests, lacking the single unified voice of the past.
Furthermore, he emphasized the starkly different trajectories of Jonathan and Tinubu:
”Jonathan stumbled into history, catapulted from vice presidency to presidency by the tragic death of President Yar’Adua, a product of circumstance rather than construction.
Tinubu, on the other hand, has trekked a long, deliberate, often lonely road from senator to two-term governor of Lagos and then to the most patient builder of political structures in the Fourth Republic.”
This observation sits at the heart of why Tinubu’s rise demands counterfactual reflection. History shows that Tinubu operated behind the scenes during the 2015 merger, ultimately conceding the vice-presidential slot to Professor Yemi Osinbajo after resistance from within Buhari’s inner circle.
Niccolò Machiavelli warned in The Prince that a leader too close to the throne becomes an easy target, whereas one who builds a fortress among the people endures.
Similarly, theories of prebendal politics and elite bargaining by scholars like Richard Joseph and Rotimi Suberu suggest that power in Nigeria is rarely seized at the center; rather, it is assembled at the margins through the patient brokerage of alliances.
By remaining outside formal executive power during those eight years, Tinubu preserved what organizational theorists call strategic slack—ample time, energy, and deniability to forge cross-regional bridges, forgive rivals, and stockpile political capital.
Why the Vice Presidency Would Have Been a Trap
Had Tinubu accepted the vice-presidential nomination in 2015, his path to the presidency might have been blocked altogether. Several structural pitfalls awaited him:
Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s aloof governing style and medical absences, a powerful deputy like Tinubu would have likely triggered a permanent cold war inside the villa.
The Incumbency Curse: Voters rarely distinguish between a president and a vice president when punishing systemic failure.
Operating as a co-pilot during years marked by economic hardship and security challenges would have tied Tinubu to the administration’s shortcomings, stripping away his outsider appeal and denying him the defining “Emilokan” narrative of 2023.
Testing a Muslim-Muslim ticket or navigating deep North-South fault lines eight years earlier under a more volatile climate could have prematurely consumed the alliance.
Inverting the Model of Godfathers.
While scholars such as Wale Adebanwi and Ebenezer Obadare have extensively studied the Nigerian godfather concept—noting how most political patrons eventually clash with and fall alongside their protégés—Tinubu inverted the model.
Instead of relying on a single base, he cultivated a vast network of political godsons across multiple zones until those networks relied on him more than he relied on them.
Ultimately, Tinubu’s journey stands out in modern Nigerian history as a masterclass in strategic patience and structural investment.
As history demonstrates, proximity to supreme power is not always power itself; sometimes, the longest road around is the only one that leads directly to the ultimate prize.
