Tony Abolo
The Mold is broken. Never have we ever had an election over 2 years before the real election. Nigerians always had governance for nearly all of the four years in between the election years. Tinubu has changed the rules of the game and environment albeit illegally.
The extant INEC rules debars campaign in all off season periods until they officially declare the campaign season.
But Tinubu irreverently in an unlawful manner, having declared himself above the law, and having in an unholy manner captured all organs of State in a selfish manner, under his cloak and dictates has commenced campaigning full two years before the time. We are now faced with the Hobbesian choice.
This early foray by Tinubu and his APC was to force the hands of opposition if there was any, that he is the master of the game and that he was in control of the political space.
He engineered defections from other parties to his APC. The defections provided gaffes, silliness and strange political behaviours, some never heard of.
In Akwa Ibom, the Governor defected while a majority of the House of Assembly members, withheld, staying back in the PDP, even though, some still crossed, presumably under persuasion. In the Delta it was all roots and branches defection.
It was ludicrous to find the Governor, his Deputy, the House of Assembly members, Local Government Chairmen and Councilors, Board Members, all moved out of the PDP and shipped themselves into the APC.
Aside those extreme examples there were other defections but not on such scale.While the defections looked like a strategy and a way to convince doubters that the APC was the way to go and make it difficult somewhat for those thinking of alternatives.
The clear strategy was to coral the South under one clucking hen to be a countervailing force and political balance for the rebelling North, who were beginning to show stress under Tinubu’s policies and governance style.
As Dr. Umar Ardo puts it, “in the North, we are not just poor (because of Tinubu’s policies) but we are destitutes”. One can understand the genuine anger and concerns of the North.
The North thus was finding new ways to rebel against Tinubu come 2027. The option left to Tinubu then is to find core alignments like he is doing with Kwankwaso whose Kwankwasiya is a potential force which should be attracted for Kano votes.
While still not allowing Rivers Emergency rule to end, and keeping Wike as his man “Friday” to guarantee Rivers Votes (which cannot be guaranteed except under duress and political robbery).
But there is a larger plot in the Southern massive defections. The French, Turkey, Iran and other foreigners are suspected to be behind the increased security threats in the North as a way not only to distabilise Tinubu’s administration.
But to engender spite and a distate for his administration and his 2027 ambition. Tinubu believes political security threats should not derail him and so he is steaming ahead with recruiting support from the North.
He has started a new strategy, which is by appointing Mohammed Babangida to the position of Chairman of the Bank of Agriculture and seven others from the North into Chairmanship positions.
But the reactions has not been as favourable as expected. A press release rejoinder was instructive. It stated that these northern late day “appointments were desperate cynical attempt to appease and buy back the trust of the North having spent a year squandering that trust of Northern Nigeria.
The anger seems deep seated and nothing will appease the North at this late hour.This is so clear with the amount of defections into the ADC, a counter vehicle which has dried up the defections that have been flowing into the APC.
Now there is a formidable opposition, the emergence of ADC was a total stunt. It proved not only the statement that those who make change impossible make violent change inevitable.
It was unthinkable that Tinubu was the only wise man in town. And to compound his folly, nothing in his style of governance was appealing to the populace.
His government was so exclusive in its design, very pro Lagos and pro Yoruba, and pro the political class. Worse than that, his fuel subsidy removal and merging of the exchange rate, all had driven inflation beyond unseen levels in Nigeria.
The anguish and suffering of the poor had exacerbated and poverty and unemployment was on the rise, almost coming to intolerable levels.
But his spokesmen always defended the indefensible.How could anyone reasonable defend a N15 trillion Naira coastal highway that could never be finished in the next four years, and awarded to Tinubu’s business partner? Or how could anyone defend a Vice President’s residence refurbished with N21 billion or an International Conference Centre renovated with N39 billion a centre built at N393 Million years ago, and at a cost of renovation by a recent visitor as no more than N3 billion.
All these expenditures at a time, the APC led by Tinubu claims they inherited a battered economy.
Africa Democratic Party, ADC, is such a refreshing hope. And its composition is made up of seasoned and genuinely embittered Nigerians willing to reset Nigeria with not only an ideology that is genuinely impressive but define a new potentially successful Nigeria that can come into its full potential.
The few press releases by its spokesperson is revealing the direction of the ADC. And to show general dissatisfaction with the Tinubu’s administration and to reveal how enthusiastic they all are to upturn Tinubu and his false Renewed Hope, Nigerians are trooping into ADC at an incredible rate.
But what is most impressive is that the Presidential hope of the ADC is under wraps. The reason is simple. Tinubu is untrustworthy in his scheming and 2027 is a long way off.
Besides, cohesion and winning the hearts and minds of the disaffected is a slow and careful work. Tinubu has its battle set out.
2027 is not going to be an easy ride for anyone. But the more major question is, ADC with its plans, has it factored dismantling the machinery of INEC? That seems to have started.
A bill is in the House of Parliament to remove the power of nomination of the INEC Chairman from the President.
But, will it be before 2027? And if so, will Tinubu sign such a bill? And how would enlightened and angry Nigerians react, if Tinubu refuses assent?
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