Olajide Omojolomoju
There seems to be bumpy and tough days ahead for the National Opposition Coalition Group, NOCG, which is hell bent on stopping the re-election of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu come 2027.
The coalition, involving prominent politicians, including former Vice President and presidential candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, in the 2023 general election, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former governor of Anambra State and the presidential Candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general election, Peter Obi.
Other politicians in the mix include, aformer governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai; former governor of Rivers State and former Minister of Transportation, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi; former Senate President David Mark and former governor of Osun State.
The immediate past Minister of the Interior, Rauf Aregbesola, a former Tinubu ally, among others are not left out.
These politicians recently announced the African Democratic Congress, ADC, as the chosen political platform to carry out their plans.
It went further to announce the emergence of Mark and Aregbesola as interim National Chairman and National Secretary respectively of the ADC.
But shortly after making public the emergence of the duo, stakeholders in the ADC kicked against what they described as “appointments that lack due process, transparency, and the broad-based legitimacy expected in a democratic political party.”
In a statement on behalf of the concerned stakeholders of the ADC, including youth leaders, women leaders, State party executives, and Ward Coordinators nationwide, by the ADC National Publicity Secretary, Musa Isa Matara.
The Stakeholders lampooned the coalition leaders for hijacking the ADC, without due consultation and due process, pointing out that the appointments of Mark and Aregbesola were not in consonance with the ADC constitution.
The statement, addressed to party leaders, members, and Nigerians, stated, “While we appreciate the enthusiasm with which Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola delivered his acceptance speech as interim National Secretary of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, we must urgently and firmly reject the premise and process behind this appointment.
“The ADC is not a private coalition platform to be hijacked by any elite group or individuals – regardless of how eloquent or ideologically polished their speeches may sound.
“Our party has structures, leadership organs, youth and women wings, and constitutional guidelines – none of which were consulted or respected in the announcement of this so-called ‘appointment'”, it said.
Enumerating jey points of objection, which include illegitimate mandate, false coalition claims, unresolved legal crises in the ADC, and legacy of undemocratic culture, among others, the stakeholders pointed out, “Who appointed former Governor Aregbesola?
Which organ of the ADC ratified this appointment? Was the National Executive Committee, NEC, involved? Were state chairmen, youth leaders, and elected national officers consulted?
If the answer is no – as it clearly is – then this ‘appointment’ is null and void.
“The claim that the ADC has become the ‘platform of the National Opposition Coalition Group, NOCG,’ is misleading.
Millions of our members have not been informed or carried along in this so-called Coalition. If anyone is attempting to force an opposition merger without grassroots consent, they are trampling on democratic ethics and party sovereignty.
“Let it be known to those who are trooping into our party under this chaotic coalition arrangement that the ADC has been battling unresolved legal crises since the 2023 general elections. These matters remain in court and unresolved. Any Coalition attempt built on such shaky legal ground is irresponsible and potentially self-destructive.
“Ironically, the speech talks about internal democracy, ideological discipline, and inclusiveness – yet the very process by which Aregbesola emerges contradicts every word he just spoke.
Democracy cannot begin with imposition. The ADC must not become another replica of the broken parties we seek to replace.”
Warning incoming members “as part of this imposed arrangement to tread carefully,” Matara said, “We warn those coming into the ADC. Be mindful that some few individuals are attempting to sell out the soul of our party for personal gain. The ADC is not for sale. It belongs to its members, not political merchants or elite dealmakers.”
He added, “The idea that ‘the party must be supreme’ cannot be used as a tool to silence dissent voices or sideline authentic party stakeholders.
Party supremacy begins with consultation and consensus, not executive pronouncements disguised as patriotic rhetoric.
“For a speech that claims to care about youth inclusion, where was the youth wing of the ADC in all this? Were youth leaders, women leaders, or even ward structures consulted? Or is this just another top-down recycling of elite political control in progressive clothing?”
The stakeholders thereafter made their stand known, insisting that they “stand firmly on the side of accountable leadership, transparent decision-making, and a people-powered party structure.”
They enthused, “Any process that excludes the very people it claims to serve is undemocratic and must be challenged.
“We call on all genuine stakeholders of the ADC – across states, zones, and demographic groups – to reject this attempted takeover of our party.
We are not opposed to coalitions.
We are not opposed to reform.
But we are opposed to hijack, to imposition, and to speeches that sound revolutionary, but hide elitist intentions beneath poetic language.”
They further reiterated that “until a legitimate, constitutionally-backed ADC National Convention or NEC confirms leadership changes, no one has the moral or legal right to speak for our party nationally.”
With this seeming crack from within the ADC, the ground has been laid for upcoming political battle for the soul of the ADC.
Recall that the new bride to the anti-Tinubu coalition, the ADC, was founded in 2005 and initially known as the Alliance for Democratic Change, ADC. But later adopted the name African Democratic Congress as a reflection of its broader political vision and continental outlook.
It was officially registered by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC in 2006 and this qualified to participate in the 2007 general elections.
The ADC fielded candidates in its first general elections across various positions nationwide, but did not make much impact until 2011, when it produced some National Assembly members, this giving it national prominence and marking a turning point in its pursuit of mainstream political legitimacy.
The ADC was endorsed in 2018 by former President Olusegun Obasanjo through his Coalition for Nigeria Movement, CNM, endorsement which significantly boosted the party’s visibility and attracted a wave of new members and supporters.
In the 2015 general elections, its presidential candidate, Dr Mani Ibrahim Ahmad, polled 29,666 votes, while in the 209 general elections, it’s presidential candidate, the late Dr Obadiah Mailafia polled 97,874 votes to emerge fourth among 73 candidates.
The party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 general elections, Dumebi Kachikwu garnered 81,919 votes to finish fifth behind the All Progressives Congress, APC, the PDP, the Labour Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP.
The party retained it presence in the National Assembly with the re-election of Leke Abejide to represent Yagba federal constituency and the election of Salman Idris, representing Kabba-Bunu/Ijumu federal constituency, boh of Kogi State, although Idris has since defected to the APC.
The ADC positions itself as a centrist party, which is championing inclusive governance, youth and women’s empowerment, and national development.
In 2022, it launched internal reforms to improve digitalisation, party discipline, and grassroots mobilisation, with the mission to break away from the control of what it caleld “wheeler-dealer political elites” and promote transparency, with a vision is to consolidate Nigeria’s democracy and build resilient institutions for a more egalitarian society.
The anti-Tinubu coalition actually started on a shaky note, first indicating that it was registering a political party, All Democratic Alliance, ADA, before finally chosing the ADC as it’s preferred platform.
But with the issue of the constitutionality of the appointment of new national officers in a manner that seems not to be in tandem with the party’s constitution, the coalition seems to have exposed its flank for future legal battle.
Meanwhile, some political and public analysts have described the coalition as a carefully laid trap and coalition of deception.
One of such analysts, Mr. Meche Oswald said that the alliance is “a political ambush, not a unity move.”
Criticising the coalition in a strongly worded statement, Oswald argued that the coalition is not aimed at building a new Nigeria, but a grand design to undermine the very hope of one.
He further accused the political figures of orchestrating a scheme that could dismantle the integrity of the Obidient movement and confuse its support base.
He said, “In Nigeria’s high-stakes political arena, not every handshake is born of peace, and not every alliance is rooted in goodwill
“The rumored coalition talks between Peter Obi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Atiku Abubakar have stirred both curiosity and concern across the country, particularly among Obi’s core supporters – the Obidients. But behind the smiles and symbolic gestures lies a dangerous trap.”
Really that both El-Rufai and Atiku harbour deep resentment against Obi for various reasons and these two men never forgive or forget.
In 2006, during the Anambra State governorship election, when the then Minister of the FCT, El-Rufai, was detained on the orders of them Governor Obi after entering the state unannounced.
Recall also that El-Rufai publicly lamented the incident over the years, saying “Peter Obi as governor got me arrested and detained when I visited Anambra as an election observer. I was treated like a common criminal. I will never forget.”
Based on the foregoing, Oswald questioned the sincerity of any alliance between El-Rufai and Obi, suggesting that El-Rufai may be motivated by a lingering vendetta rather than genuine political collaboration.
He also accused El-Rufai of harboring anti-Igbo sentiments, citing past controversial statements and rhetoric.
He added, “Why would he suddenly seek to partner with the face of the Igbo political awakening? Simple. He wants to kill the movement from within.
“He knows he cannot defeat Obi in an open contest. So the next best strategy? Infiltrate. Undermine. Destroy.”
Recall that Obi was Atiku’s running mate when they both contested for the 2019 presidential elections under the PDP, though the lost the election.
In 2023, the expectation was that if Atiku wins PDP ticket, Obi would automatically return as his running mate, but Obi pulled the rug from under such arrangement when he defected to the LP and picked its ticket to run for Presidency, a move which exposed Atiku and which he believed made him lose the 2023 presidential election.
Describing Atike as a political veteran unwilling to forgive Obi for breaking away in 2023 after serving as his running mate in 2019, Oswald said, “Atiku has never forgiven Obi for contesting independently and winning where no third-force candidate had won in decades. To Atiku, Obi was meant to serve, not lead.
“Now, these talks of coalition aren’t about unity. They’re about revenge.”
He further described the alliance as a “Trojan horse” designed to dismantle Obi’s credibility and splinter his base.
He enthused, “If Obi joins this alliance, his supporters will be disillusioned. It will look like a return to the same establishment that mocked and marginalized him. That loss of clarity is enough victory for his enemies.”
Analysts also suggested that the alliance may be the “hand of Esau and voice of Jacob, opining that Tinubu may have a hidden hand in the coalition.
There are suggestions that the coalition may indirectly benefit President Tinubu, who stands to gain from a coalition in disarray.
Oswald said, “A divided opposition is Tinubu’s best-case scenario for 2027. If El-Rufai – once part of Tinubu’s camp – is now reaching out to Obi, we must ask: who is he really working for?”
There is the belief in many circles that El-Rufai’s shift is not genuine, but part of a strategic plan to infiltrate and destabilize the Obidient movement from within.
Oswald concluded, “This is not the time for confusion. It is the time for clarity. El-Rufai hasn’t forgotten. Atiku hasn’t forgiven. And the political elite haven’t stopped plotting.
“This coalition is not a handshake. It is a chokehold in disguise. Nigeria’s future cannot be built by those who ruined its past.”
Another knotty issue that may undo the coalition is the question of who picks the presidential ticket. Will Atiku be ready to step down for Obi or any other younger elements in the coalition? From all indication, Atiku is yet to back down on his ambition to rule Nigeria.
Will Obi be ready to play second fiddle this time around? It is suggested that if he is willing to, his support base may not align with him in that regard.
So, many questions and uncertainty surrounding the coalition and its preferred platform, but time, the harbinger of events will certainly tell.
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